Further draft of MINT00263 (Mint 19/2/612-13, 614-15)

<616r>

Observations on M^r P^'s Reply

1 On the Argument against Paper Credit taken from the Course of the Coynage

M^r P (pag 1, 2\see 2, 3, 4, 6, 7/ t|T|o shew the|a||t| decrease of the Coynage \has decreased/ since the rise & growth of paper credit \M^r P. (sec. 2, 3, 4, 6, 7)/ justifies his assertions that there were Coyned in silver Communibus Annis about 400000^li ꝑ Ann from 1640 to 1660, 200000^li ꝑ Ann and from 1660 to 1680 & less then 80000^li ꝑ Ann from 1680 to 1695 These Assertions I disputed not, Except that I affirmed the 400000^li ꝑ Ann to be not |in| silver alone but in gold & silver together. But I represented that from this decrease of the silver Coynage nothing could be argued against Paper Credit, & that for these two reasons.

First because M^r. P considers not the whole Coynage of both Gold & Silver together w^ch makes our wealth but that of silver alone For the Coynage of silver from 1640 to 1660 was much greater then that of gold and now it is much less and this alteration of the proportion arises not from Paper Credit but from the \growing/ Exportation of great quantities of silver to the Indies while our gold stays at home, by reason \o^r Merchants finding/ that silver is a better Commodity in the Indies then gold

Secondly because the decrease of the Coynage from 1640 to 1695 was not uniform, as it should seem by M^r P.'s way of arguing\representation/ but had severall periods of increasing and decreasing according to the vicissitudes of Peace and war abroad all w^ch ought to be distinguished and Considered severally before any thing can be concluded from the Course of the Coynage. For if the increase & \coynage in the reign of K. Cha. & K. Iames II increased w^th paper credit when according to his recconing it \should have/ decreased, if at other times the/ decrease of the Coynage arose from other Causes then Paper credit, then we must not ascribe it \y^e increase to paper credit + the decrease not/ to Paper credit but to those other causes, & so the argument from the Course of the Coynage against Paper Credit will vanish. \A/ {sic} For|Now| the Course of the Coynage answered to the vicissitudes of Peace and war abroat|d| after this manner

The Silver Coynage in the latter half of Q Elizabeths reign (after she had recoyned the base money of her Predecessors) & in the first five years of King Iames was Communibus annis about 70 or 80 thousand pounds ꝑ Ann. Then upon a Cessation of arms between the Dutch & Spaniards it fell suddenly to less then 40 thousand pounds ꝑ Ann. Afterwards upon renewing y^e warr & makeing a Peace between England and Spain 1629 it grew greater then Ever and continued so till y^e end of the warr 1648 the Silver Coynage being about 440000^li ꝑ ann and that of both gold and silver together above 600000^li ꝑ Ann. Then \upon the conclusion of peace between Spain & Holland/ it fell again & became but y^e 8^th or 10^th part of what it was before and continued so for y^e next 18 year being scarce 70000^li ꝑ Ann <616v> till the Enacting of the Coynage Duty 1666 by w^ch & y^e flourishing of trade in y^e Peacefull reigns of Charles II & Iames II & the quick dispatch of business by Paper Credit, Notwithstanding o^r disadvantageous trade w^th France it Encreased till it became about 680000^li ꝑ Ann. And then by the late war with France & the Consequent decay of Paper Credit and trade it decreased again Exceedingly. This agreement between y^e Encrease & decrease of the Coynage and the state of the Nation in respect of peace & war abroad shews that y^e Coynage has Principally depended on that state. And if Paper Credit hath had any Effect upon the Coynage it has promoted it because both increased together till 1690 and afterwards both decreased together by y^e late French warr

By the ordinary Course of trade y^e Coynage of Gold and Silver in the last 17 years of y^e reign of K Iames y^e 1^st scarce Exceeded 40 or 50 thousand pounds ꝑ Ann. In the reign of K Charles y^e 1^st it increased to an Exceeding great height not by the ordinary Course of trade but by our being in peace while our Neighbours were in war and supplyed themselves with provisions from England for carrying on that war|.| a|A|fter 1648|7| when that was ceased and trade returned to its ordinary Course the Coynage (without recconing the recoyning of the Harp and Cross money) became but about 68000^li ꝑ Ann one year with another till the rise and growth of paper Credit and \y^e enacting of y^e/ Coynage duty 1667 and then in the space of 23 years more by the Encouragement of that Act and the Encrease of Trade occasioned by the quick dispatch of business by Paper Credit, the Coynage grew ten times greater then it was before And therefore M^r P. in his first Paper seems to have set the argument in a wrong light when he represented that the Coynage had decreased ever since the rise and growth of Paper Credit For he there Considers the Coynage of Silver alone and lessens it \in y^e reign of K. Cha. II & K. Iac. II/ by taking a medium between that w^ch preceded the French warr and y^t w^ch was in the warr\in the present reign/, whereas if he had considered y^e whole Coynage of both gold and silver and distinguished between times of Peace and warr, he would have found the argument from the Coynage to lye \altogether/ in favour of paper Credit and of y^e Coynage duty \Act/ as I represented in my former paper|, the| /coynage by means of paper Credit & the Coynage Act growing ten{illeg} times great yⁿ ever it was before < insertion from f 617r > by the ordinary course of trade, untill the late French warr put a stop to it < text from f 616v resumes > \

But M^r P. (pag\sect/ 18, 19) replys\represents/ that if the Coynage Act had tended as much to y^e securing and keeping of o^r Coyn in y^e Nation as it did to Encourage Coynage the advantage I ascribe to that Act would have been w^thout Contradiction but it is well known that y^e success has been otherwise, much of the Coyn having been melted down and Exported so that the little time of its circulation scarce made amends for y^e charge of Coynage & y^e Act it self incourageing y^e Coynage of Gold severall times over and y^e Merchant to Coyn in the dead months of Exportation w^t he intended to Export soon after so that there may be a \have been a/ great Coynage without any Addition to o^r stock. To all w^ch I answer that trade like a river wears its self channells \from/ w^ch afterwards \it/ Cannot easily be diverted That y^e designe of y^e Coynage Act was to derive y^e Channel of Gold and Silver through y^e English Mint & y^t if it had had y^t Effect in a notable manner \as appears by the large coynage/, & y^t this Act was not designed to prevent y^e Melting or Exporting <617r> of our moneys and therefore is not to be blamed for not preventing it & that the quantities of milled monies melted or Exported ha{ve}|th| been nothing near so great as M^r. P. seems to represent

For as for Guineas there could not be above a third part of them weighty enough for the cutting trade and all Importers did not cull \but many \weighty/ Guineas of K. Cha. & K. Iames are still being notwithstand//ing their being lightned by wearing. {sic}\. In my former paper I recconed about $\frac{1}{8}$^th part culled out from melting. If I should say a fifth part yet the residue remaineing in the Nation in the year 1690 would be above five Millions. And so large a stock of Guineas is Confirmed by the plentifull appearance they made when they were at 30^s apiece. And that this culling trade may be no more objected against the Coynage Act, tis now stopt\ceased/ by the exat|c|t sizing of the monies.

The Milled silver monies of K. Charles & K Iames is at p^rsent about an 8^th. part of the whole Silver coyn (as I find by Examining severall parcells) and therefore in the time of y^e Recoynage of the hammered monies when they first {illeg}|mixed| with those monies\new & old milled monies first mixed/, amounted to about a Million. If in the six years preceding the recoynage there was|ere| about three Millions of silver monies Exported ({illeg}|for| \so/ I recconed in my former Paper \{or} if there {illeg}|\were {illeg}|{4}| or {illeg}|{6}| {millions}/| M^r P. {illeg}|&| I believe \M^r P./ will readily allow a much greater summ) {sic}/ and |if| the better half of this was milled money, that being the weightiest, then \there was above a million & an half of milled money exported in those six years & {thence}/ in the beginning of the year 1690 there was above two Millions and an half of milled silver monies in the nation which added to the five Millions of Gold makes above seaven \millions/ and an half of Gold and Silver monies coyned in the {illeg}|f|irst 23 years of the Coynage Act and remaining in the Nation till the year 1690 besides what was melted down and recoyned or Exported. And tho we should abate a million of this sum \(which I see no reason to do)/ yet the remainder would be so great a {sic} Addition to our stock as abundantly makes good the argument from the Coynage in favour of the Coynage Act & Paper credit.

Yet M^r. P. (pag. 6\sect. 13/) upon my observing that the Coynage of both gold and silver fell very much soon after the beginning of y^e late warr, represents it as a thing well known that we had coyned but little silver (excepting what came from the wreck) for some years before. And therefore to set right this matter and put it out of dispute \that y^e coynage of silver was large as well as that of gold till the beginning of that war,/ I have subjoyned the Mint accompt of y^e silver Coynage for every four years interceding\from the {sic}/ the Recoynage of the Harp and Cross money and\till/ the late Recoynage of the old hammered money.

There were coyned in the Tower in silver milled monies

By this Accompt it appears there was coyned in the 22 years of the Coynage Act from Dec 21 1667 when the Coynage Act began to operate, {illeg} to Dec 21 1689, the summ of 3277256. 3. 2 w^ch \abating/ by Estimacon about half a Million for y^e wreck (for I have now forgot how much the wreck was vallued at) is after y^e rate of 126000^li ꝑ Ann one year with another. And this Coynage \notwithstanding the growing exportation of silver to {illeg}|t|he Indies/ held without any Considerable abatement till y^e beginning of y^e French war & there fell at once\in one year/ to two or three thousand pounds ꝑ Ann |w^ch is less then the 20^th part of what it was at the beggining of that war before. And Or to speak more truly, the coynage w^ch arose from over ballance of trade ceased that year. For the 3 or 4 thousand pounds p^r an \coyned afterwards/ were not imported by the Merchant but bought w^th y^e Coynage Duty by the M^r of the Mint.|

I have heard it represente{illeg}|d| that in China Gold is esteemed worth about 10 times it {sic} weight in Silver and that in a parcell of Gold of about 10 or 12 pound weight brought from China last summer the profit was about 60 ꝑ Cent. But if w^th M^r P. \(sect 11)/ we say that y^e profit of Exporting silver to the Indies is but 25 ꝑ Cent more then y^t of Exporting Gold, tis a sufficient Encouragement to the Merchant to Export Silver rather then Gold and yet the surplus of their large Exportations made a Coynage of Silver \{I} do not say that o^r coynage of gold has sensibly increased by the exportation of silver to purchase it, {illeg} as M^r P. {(}sect 11) seems to understand me. I know but of one parcel of Gold of about 10 or 12 poudn weight w^ch has been brought hither from {illeg} The|But| rest has I say that there have been large exportations of silver/ of above 120000 ꝑ Ann w^ch is more then double to what it had ever been by the ordinary Course of Trade before y^e growth of Paper Credit and Enacting of the Coynage duty. in the least seaven years of K Iames the I the silver Coynage amounted to 102981^li. 9^s. 8^d. w^ch is after the rate of about 15000^li ꝑ Ann In the 19 years from y^e death of K Charles I to the end of the first year off the Coynage Act Dec 2{3}|1| 1667 it amounted to 922945^li besides the 100000^li for Dunkirk and this is after y^e rate of almost 50000^li ꝑ ann But in the next 22 years by y^e joynt operation of y^e Coynage Act and Paper Credit it amounted on year with another to above 1{illeg}|7|0000^li ꝑ ann w^ch great encrease shewes that y^e Mint Accompts w^ch M^r P. in his first paper principally appeals to against paper Credit makes highly for that credit as well in the coynage of Silver as in that of Gold, notwithstanding that the Indies {was}\did/ swep|e|p away y^e greatest part of o^r silver Bullion